Mike's plan vs the S&P 500, one line per start year

source: Each line: $1 put in at the end of January of that year (1997-2026), month-end values to Oct 12 2026; each start is its own fresh run. Both panels use the same log scale; The mix: the 3 S&P 500 stocks with the biggest 6-month gain, 50/25/25. Crash rule: at each month-end, if the S&P 500 is down over the past 12 months, everything sits in T-bills until it isn't; The plan: from the start, the whole mix is re-picked every month. Once the crash rule first sends you to cash (or if you start while it does), you come back in staggered: six pots, each re-picked every 6 months, one pot per month; Vertical lines: red = the crash rule moves to cash, green = back in (month-ends; only the long spells are labelled). White-ringed dots: where each start's line switches from monthly to staggered (its first red line, or its start if it began in cash). It never switches back; Monthly prices, 0.1% fee on each buy and sell, T-bill interest on cash, no taxes. Data: Yahoo month-end closes with dividends, dead S&P members patched in from free sources; most members before 2000 still missing • drawn 2026-10-12 21:37 UTC